By Ellen Mannaert
After almost thirty years in real estate across Europe, the Gulf and the Caribbean, I’ve stopped fearing the word correction. We should welcome the one Dubai is heading into, and the rest of the world should pay attention.
I was 19, working in the textile industry, when a client of ours — a man with a serious property portfolio in the Netherlands — said something that stayed with me. He joked that his first real estate deal had earned him as much as a pilot, without the work. That one sentence rewired how I thought about money.
I started asking questions. Then I bought my first townhouse in the city centre — 60% bank financed, 40% my own capital. I split it into two units, a studio and a two-bedroom apartment, rented both out, and after the mortgage I was clearing €5,500 a month. At 19.
Most founders treat real estate as the reward for building businesses. For me it was the opposite — it’s what made the businesses possible. And it’s why I’ve spent three decades watching this market with the same question in mind: what’s a healthy property cycle, and what’s a dangerous one?
Which brings me to Dubai.
THE 50/50 RULE
After almost thirty years in real estate, I think a correction in Dubai would be healthy. You can’t build a market on speculation alone.
My rule is 50/50 — fifty percent end-users buying homes to live in, fifty percent investors and speculators. That ratio is what creates a stable market. When it tips too far toward speculation, you get noise instead of foundations.
With a record wave of off-plan handovers landing in 2027 and prices where they sit today, the market has to absorb that supply somehow. Either it corrects, or buyers step back and wait. Both outcomes lead to the same place.
A correction isn’t a crash. It’s the market doing its job. Speculation gets priced out, end-users find their footing, and the city moves from boom to maturity. The Dubai that emerges on the other side will be a more serious market than the one we have now and that’s good news for anyone planning to be here for some time.
WHY I’M STILL BULLISH
Most commentators say people move to Dubai for the tax benefits. That’s not what I see. The majority move for safety and ease of living. As long as Dubai keeps delivering on both, it becomes a city where families want to build their lives — not just park their capital. That’s a much stronger foundation than a tax regime.
But long-term confidence doesn’t mean buying at any price. My personal rule is simple: never buy in a hot market. Wait for the correction. I’ve broken that rule once — our family villa — and we’ve held it for twenty years and we’re not selling, so the liquidity is built in. That’s the exception. If you’re buying to keep forever, the entry price matters less. For everyone else, patience is the key.
PLAN YOUR EXIT STRATEGY FIRST
The biggest risk in property isn’t the market. It’s buying without knowing your exit. Are you holding or flipping? Decide before you sign, not after.
The risk I see, especially in Dubai on a small scale right now, is first-time investors buying off-plan with borrowed money they can’t sustain if the market shifts before handover.
If you buy off-plan, buy from a developer with a real track record, and buy something genuinely special, not generic stock that loses its premium the moment the next tower goes up.
THREE RULES TO BUILD YOUR PORTFOLIO
If you’re building your first portfolio, ignore the noise and follow three rules. The same ones I’ll hand my sons.
One: Location, location. A small investment in a prime location will always beat a big villa in a bad one. Don’t fall for square metres. Fall for the street, the city, the neighbourhood that people will still want to live in twenty years from now.
Two: Buy something you can split. A shop below and an apartment above, a townhouse that can become two units. Two income streams from one asset gives you options. One income stream gives you exposure.
Three: If the rent doesn’t cover the mortgage from day one, you’re speculating, not investing. That’s the line. Investors buy cash flow. Speculators buy hope. The market will reward you for being on the right side of that sentence.
THE LONG VIEW
Dubai is going through what every great market eventually goes through — the moment it stops being a story and becomes a serious place to live. The correction, when it comes, won’t be the end of anything. It will be the start of a more honest market.
That’s not a reason to wait. It’s a reason to be ready. Decide your exit before you sign. Buy where people want to live, not where prices have already run. Make sure the rent pays for the building, not your hope that prices keep climbing. And then hold.
Build slowly. Buy well. The portfolio takes care of itself.
Ellen Mannaert Bio
Ellen Mannaert is a serial entrepreneur, mentor, keynote speaker and investor.
Ellen began her financial portfolio with real estate investments in Europe and continued to build her wealth by buying and selling properties across Africa and the Middle East.
She is also the founder of Era of You and creator of “The Architecture of Who You Are,” an online course and framework for deep personal and professional transformation.
Ellen has delivered lectures and talks at institutions and stages including Davos, the universities of Cambridge and Oxford, and Westminster Palace.
